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Lucky Value: Does Being Lucky Really Result in More Bitcoin Mining Profitable?

In the 15-year mining history of Bitcoin, there have been lucky individuals who, with only a small share of hashrate, successfully solved complex mathematical problems, winning the right to record blocks and the corresponding block rewards. However, such success stories are difficult to replicate, as the current total Bitcoin hashrate is as high as 509 EH/s (as of May 8, 2024), equivalent to 2.545 million Antminer S21 competing simultaneously for the next block's recording rights.

According to statistics from the National Weather Service, the probability of someone being struck by lightning in a certain year is only 1 in 1,222,000. For individual miners with only a few mining rigs, the probability of successfully winning the right to record blocks is even lower than the probability of being struck by lightning. Thanks to the emergence of mining pools, many individual miners can pool their hashrate into the mining pool, forming a "collective hashrate force" to compete for block recording rights together. This cooperative approach greatly increases the success rate of obtaining block recording rights. Although miners cannot individually claim all block rewards, they can also receive stable returns based on their respective hashrate contributions.


Certainly, lucky value also plays a role for mining pools. A mining pool that aggregates the hashrate of many miners can be seen as a "big miner" in itself. When luck is on their side, the mining pool may compete for more block recording rights, meaning it mines more blocks; however, when luck is poor, the number of blocks mined is relatively low.

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